Putin’s Ukrainian Judo Revisited

 



*By Dmitry Orlov and posted with permission*

Denis Pushilin, leader of Donetsk, has just ordered a full evacuation
<https://youtu.be/-xXm_26QS-0>. Leonid Pasechnik, leader of Lugansk, did
the same <https://youtu.be/m17NHEW-4mQ>. In doing so, they did exactly
as I expected, and as I predicted. For all those of you who think that
Putin is a mystery wrapped in an enigma, perhaps you should avoid
thinking and just read my articles!

A bit less than a year ago, on April 18, 2021, I published an article
titled “Putin’s Ukrainian Judo” which was reposted on ZeroHedge
<https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putins-ukrainian-judo> and
TheSaker <https://thesaker.is/putins-ukrainian-judo/>. I then translated
it into Russian and published it on Aftersock.info
<https://aftershock.news/?q=node/967876> where it was positively savaged
for being defeatist. The reason I bring it up now is that in that
article I explained that evacuation was the only winning move for the
Russian side.

In that article I wrote:

The Ukrainian military has been massing troops and armor along the line
of separation while the Russian military has pulled up its forces to
their side of the border. Shelling, sniper fire and other provocations
from the Ukrainian side are intensifying, with the hope of provoking the
Russians into moving forces onto Ukrainian territory, thus allowing the
collective West to shout “Aha! Russian aggression!” Then they could put
a stop to Nord Stream II pipeline, scoring a major geopolitical victory
for Washington and follow that up with plenty of other belligerent moves
designed to hurt Russia politically and economically.

For the Russians, there are no good choices that are obvious. Not
responding to Ukrainian provocations and doing nothing while they shell
and invade the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, killing Russian citizens
who live there, would make Russia look weak, undermine the Russian
government’s position domestically and cost it a great deal of
geopolitical capital internationally. Responding to Ukrainian
provocations with overwhelming military force and crushing the Ukrainian
military as was done in Georgia in 2008 would be popular domestically
but could potentially lead to a major escalation and possibly an all-out
war with NATO. Even if militarily the conflict is contained and NATO
forces sit it out, as they did in Georgia, the political ramifications
would cause much damage to the Russian economy through tightened
sanctions and disruptions to international trade.

Those being the obvious bad choices, what are the obvious good ones, if
any? Here, we have to pay careful attention to the official
pronouncements Putin has made over the years, and to take them as face
value. First, he said that Russia does not need any more territory; it
has all the land it could ever want. Second, he said that Russia will
follow the path of maximum liberalization in granting citizenship to
compatriots and that, in turn, the well-being of Russia’s citizens is a
top priority. Third, he said that resolving the conflict in eastern
Ukraine through military means is unacceptable. Given these constraints,
what courses of action remain open?

The answer, I believe, is obvious: evacuation. There are around 3.2
million residents in Donetsk People’s Republic and 1.4 million in
Lugansk People’s Republic, for a total of some 4.6 million residents.
This may seem like a huge number, but it’s moderate by the scale of
World War II evacuations. Keep in mind that Russia has already absorbed
over a million Ukrainian migrants and refugees without much of a
problem. Also, Russia is currently experiencing a major labor shortage,
and an infusion of able-bodied Russians would be most welcome.

Domestically, the evacuation would likely be quite popular: Russia is
doing right by its own people by pulling them out of harm’s way. The
patriotic base would be energized and the already very active Russian
volunteer movement would swing into action to assist the Emergencies
Ministry in helping move and resettle the evacuees. The elections that
are to take place later this year would turn into a nationwide welcoming
party for several million new voters. The Donbass evacuation could pave
the way for other waves of repatriation that are likely to follow. There
are some 20 million Russians scattered throughout the world, and as the
world outside Russia plunges deeper and deeper into resource scarcity
they too will want to come home. While they may presently be reluctant
to do so, seeing the positive example of how the Donbass evacuees are
treated could help change their minds.

The negative optics of surrendering territory can be countered by not
surrendering any territory. As a guarantor of the Minsk Agreements,
Russia must refuse to surrender the Donbass to the Ukrainian government
until it fulfills the terms of these agreements, which it has shown no
intention of doing for seven years now and which it has recently
repudiated altogether. It is important to note that the Russian military
can shoot straight across all of Donbass without setting foot on
Ukrainian soil. Should the Ukrainian forces attempt to enter Donbass,
they will be dealt with as shown in this instructional video
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kUmPlv6Cbw>. Note that the maximum
range of the Tornado-G system shown in the video is 120km.

And should the Ukrainians care to respond by attacking Russian
territory, another one of Putin’s pronouncements helps us understand
what would happen next: if attacked, Russia will respond not just
against the attackers but also against the centers of decision-making
responsible for the attack. The Ukrainian command in Kiev, as well as
its NATO advisers, would probably keep this statement in mind when
considering their steps.

The Donbass evacuation should resonate rather well internationally. It
would be a typical Putin judo move knocking NATO and the US State
Department off-balance. Since this would be a large humanitarian
mission, it would be ridiculous to attempt to portray it as “Russian
aggression.” On the other hand, Russia would be quite within its rights
to issue stern warnings that any attempt to interfere with the
evacuation or to launch provocations during the evacuation process would
be dealt with very harshly, freeing Russia’s hands in dispatching to God
the berserkers from the Ukraine’s Nazi battalions, some of whom don’t
particularly like to follow orders.

The West would be left with the following status quo. The Donbass is
empty of residents but off-limits to them or to the Ukrainians. The
evacuation would in no sense change the standing or the negotiating
position of the evacuees and their representatives vis-à-vis the Minsk
agreements, locking this situation in place until Kiev undertakes
constitutional reform, becomes a federation and grants full autonomy to
Donbass, or until the Ukrainian state ceases to exist and is
partitioned. The Ukraine would be unable to join NATO (a pipe dream
which it has stupidly voted into its constitution) since this would
violate the NATO charter, given that it does not control its own territory.

Further sanctions against Russia would become even more difficult to
justify, since it would be untenable to accuse it of aggression for
undertaking a humanitarian mission to protect its own citizens or for
carrying out its responsibilities as a guarantor of the Minsk
agreements. The Donbass would remain as a stalker zone roamed by Russian
battlefield robots sniping Ukrainian marauders, with the odd busload of
schoolchildren there on a field trip to lay flowers on the graves of
their ancestors. Its ruined Soviet-era buildings, not made any newer by
three decades of Ukrainian abuse and neglect, will bear silent witness
to the perpetual ignominy of the failed Ukrainian state.

History is as often driven by accident as by logic, but since we cannot
predict accidents, logic is the only tool we have in trying to guess the
shape of the future. Rephrasing Voltaire, this, then, is the best that
we can expect to happen in this the best of all possible worlds.

Em
THE SAKER
http://thesaker.is/putins-ukrainian-judo-revisited/
18/2/2022